One School’s Teacher Shortage is Another School’s Surplus
Agreat teacher can have a profoundly positive impact on a student’s life. Yet, recent news headlines have warned that “America faces catastrophic teacher shortage” resulting from an exodus of teachers from the profession left in the pandemic’s wake. According to some reports, the shift has forced districts into crisis mode, including drastic measures such as reducing the number of school days in a week and increasing class sizes. This isn’t even mentioning some other challenges like shortfalls of bus drivers and other key support staff. In any case, this is the absolute worst situation for students after they barely survived several years of significant educational disruption and learning loss.
To solve the problem, we must first understand the problem. Because of data limitations, we don’t yet have a clear picture of what the actual impact may be, but there are warning signs that policymakers must take seriously.
Since the 1975, the student/teacher ratio dramatically decreased nationwide — driven by a greater increase in the number of teachers (44% increase) compared to the growth in student enrollment (11% increase). In 1975, the overall public school student/teacher ratio was approximately 20 to 1 and today it’s only 15 to 1.
Total Teachers and Enrollment in Public Schools in the United States, 1975–2022
Left axis shows number of teachers, right axis indicates student enrollments (in thousands)
Although recent federal projections show a decrease in the number of public school teachers, student enrollment is declining as well — and at a faster rate. Over the past five years, the number of teachers declined about 0.4%, but public school enrollment has decreased 1.5 — or more than three times the loss (see the chart below). So it’s not simply a case of losing teachers; enrollment is decreasing as well — more than making up for the overall loss of teachers.
Projected Total Teachers and Enrollment in Public Schools in the United States
Left axis shows student enrollments, right axis indicates number of teachers (in thousands)
But the macro trends do not tell the entire story. Labor markets are highly localized and there have been long-standing shortages in subject areas and in certain schools, particularly schools with significant numbers of underserved students from communities of color.
In other words, not every school faces the same challenges — some face significant shortages, while some areas have surpluses of potential staff to fill jobs. And many of these challenges existed before COVID. I wrote about this with other colleagues in a report in a 2017, with a really catchy title entitled, “A Background on Potential Teacher Shortages in the United States.”
Case in point, was a recent article in my local newspaper citing a recent survey that found suburban districts “were not seeing a teacher shortage…just the same number of vacancies as usual” while some of the urban districts, like the Albany City School District — a district that serves a greater number of underserved students being quoted as being in “crisis” mode. But as the superintendent from the Albany School District, Kaweeda Adams, points out — these have been ongoing challenges and not something simply as a result of the pandemic. She states,
“In the end of the day, our students are the ones who experience challenges when they do not have a licensed, permanent teacher in front of them. Whether it is one position or five positions or 50 positions, we are always concerned we have the appropriate personnel in front of the students…We have hard-to-fill areas: science, math and foreign language.”
First, as Albany Superintendent Adams said, the nation has faced persistent shortages in particular subject matters and areas. As the chart below illustrates, every state and the District of Columbia have experienced teacher shortages in areas such as science education and special education going back to the 1990s.
Number of States and District of Columbia with Multiple Years of Teacher Shortages, by Subject (Between 1990 and 2017)
Second, as the Albany Superintendent points out, her district — like many other similarly situated districts — face greater challenges getting experienced educators into their classrooms. In a series of Rockefeller Institute of Government reports I co-authored looking at teaching supply and demand in various states, we found significant gaps among the “haves” and the “have nots”. Or as Paul Simon sang, “some folks’ lives roll easy and some folks’ lives never roll at all.”
In New York State, we found that students in schools with high poverty, especially with greater numbers of students from communities of color, have a greater percentage of teachers teaching out of certification, teachers with no or only provisional certification, less experienced teachers, and a higher annual turnover rate.
Average Values of Teacher Non-certification, Inexperience, and Turnover are among High Poverty and Minority Districts in New York State
Our research found similar challenges in other states. In an analysis of South Dakota’s educator workforce, we found that there were higher turnover rates for teachers in districts with high poverty with a greater number of Native American students — the state’s largest underserved community. But to demonstrate how varied it can be from state to state, we found that there were greater issues filling teacher jobs in small rural districts in South Dakota, while large urban districts faced greater challenges in New York State.
Finally, on top of educators leaving the profession, reports have suggested that a decline in enrollment and completion at teaching certification programs could be exacerbating shortages. However, recent federal data show that enrollment in teaching preparation programs is growing nationwide. In 2015–2016, 440,812 individuals were enrolled in a teacher preparation program and in 2019–20 there were 601,467 people enrolled — a 36% increase.
Individuals Enrolling in and Completing Teacher Preparation Programs (2015–16 to 2019–20)
Left axis shows enrollments in teacher prep programs, right axis indicates individuals who completed
However, as the map from the U.S. Department of Education illustrates, enrollment varies even from state to state. Some states, like California, New York, Florida, and Ohio saw annual increases in applicants to teacher preparation programs, while state like North Carolina, New Jersey, and Tennessee experienced declining enrollment.
However, as recent reports have suggested, increased enrollment in teacher prep programs could be offset by an increase number of educators leaving the profession because of the hardships during the pandemic. But that impact is not yet clear and something to keep a close eye on.
To provide solutions for policymakers, we must separate rhetoric from reality. Challenges in having enough qualified teachers isn’t a new problem. Even prior to COVID, many reports were sending Bat Signals warning of looming national teaching shortages. But my fear is by framing the problem as a national shortage we are masking specific and persistent shortages in special subjects and schools, especially our schools with a greater percentage of students living in poverty and with students of color. The policy solutions around a macro problem like a national teacher shortage often ends up leaving these schools further behind.
To provide solutions for policymakers, we must separate rhetoric from reality. Challenges in having enough qualified teachers isn’t a new problem. Even prior to COVID, many reports were sending Bat Signals warning of looming national teaching shortages.
